Paradigms and Risk Hustlers
What’s your paradigm? A paradigm is a lens on how you view the world. Virtually all of us are exposed to the political paradigm, although only some see everything through the political lens. It dominates much of the media, although a lot of it is boring. Wouldn’t it be better if it was like boxing. How about Friday night (political) fights between The Blond Bomber, Laura Ingraham versus the Queen of Snark, Rachel Maddow? At lower levels, we could have Phil Donahue or similar TV hosts showing, “You slept with my husband and now he believes government handouts keep people out of the workforce you B****.”
I have a friend who is a stockbroker and his paradigm is that the stock market is, “the greatest game in the world.” He might, for example, view the recent news story about Russian president Vladimir Putin’s falling down and soiling himself as a reason to invest in Depends. That’s just how he thinks.
The point is that paradigms—ones outside of how you currently view the world—either are or can become interesting.
I am both an economist and a risk analyst and both have their own paradigm (some of economics is used by risk analysts, however). As part of being an economist, I think in terms of “opportunity costs .” An opportunity cost is not like an expenditure, it’s the next best alternative of a choice. For example, if asked to go to dinner on a Sunday night, I would think about whether I wanted to do that or my next best alternative, to watch the latest season of Yellowstone.
Risk analysis is a method of identifying and managing risks. It uses science but is different from science. Science “is a strategy for understanding and explaining the natural and social world.” It doesn’t tell us anything about what to do about problems in the natural and social world. Risk analysts ask the questions: what is the risk; how do people think about the risk; and what is the best way to manage the risk?
When you think about it, there seems to be very little in our lives that does not involve risk. Current topics du jour include pandemics, climate change, food and water safety, environmental degradation, financial risks, workplace safety, pesticides, war, chemicals and much more. This week, I heard two talks at the Society for Risk Analysis on how to design a building so that the water supply would be safe and how to sample feces from a building for evidence of COVID.
When most people think about risks, they think about whether something is safe or if they are afraid of it. Some fear pesticides so much they will only eat organic food (which actually has both natural and synthetic pesticides), while others are content with traditional foods. But there are plenty of fear hustlers who will try to scare you about pesticides in your food. Risk analysts try to serve as a buffer between decision makers, (including individuals) and those fear hustlers.
To do so, a risk analyst will ask how much of a pesticide residue is present and what is the probability of clinical harm (an actual illness). If there is a clinical effect, how severe is it? In addition, how do consumer perceptions differ from how risk analysts view the residue levels? Finally, if there is a health or safety issue, what is the best course of action, particularly where benefits of taking the action exceed the costs of that action? Finally, if we ban a pesticide, what will take its place?
When teaching classes about risk analysis, I usually start with an example. I take a test tube and fill it up with water in the drinking fountain outside of the classroom. I inform the class it is a mixture of water and arsenic and ask for a volunteer to drink it. After they recoil at the prospect I drink it and tell them this is their first lesson in dose/response analysis. To wit, the founding principle of toxicology is, “all substances are poisons, there are none that are not. It is the dose that makes the poison.”
We are likely to see risk analysis taught in both universities and high schools in the future. Meanwhile, it’s a fun paradigm to learn so that you can have a better understanding of risks and be able to identify when fear hustlers are working on you.